Independent advisory

Independent advice across strategy, capital and markets

Libella Group advises businesses, investors and financial institutions on strategic growth, capital raising, markets and cross-border development, with particular experience across the UK and Middle East.

Mandates are led directly by senior practitioners and built around a defined commercial outcome.

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London · Middle East · InternationalIndependent · Senior-led · Commercially focused
How we work

Senior advice, grounded in market experience

We work on assignments where market knowledge, institutional relationships and practical execution are central to the outcome.

The firm takes on a limited number of mandates, with direct senior involvement from initial analysis through to execution.

Independent adviceInstitutional markets experienceUK & Middle East coverage
Firm services

Core areas of advisory work

Libella focuses on strategy, capital, financial markets and the operating frameworks required to support institutional growth.

01

Strategic Advisory

Strategy, market entry and institutional development for businesses evaluating growth, expansion or a change in commercial direction.

  • Corporate & commercial strategy
  • Market entry & expansion
  • MENA strategy
  • Senior management advisory
02

Capital & Transactions

Support around capital formation and transactions, from positioning and investor engagement through to strategic financing workstreams.

  • Private capital raising
  • Investor identification & engagement
  • Strategic financing
  • Transaction positioning
03

Markets & Investment Advisory

Equity, derivative and structured solutions for investment, financing and risk management, across public and private markets.

  • Equity & derivative strategy
  • Structured solutions & hedging
  • Index changes & corporate events
  • Institutional market intelligence
04

Business Infrastructure

Practical operating frameworks that help businesses establish, govern and scale an institutional-quality platform.

  • Corporate structuring
  • Operating models
  • Governance frameworks
  • Reporting, data & workflow
Publications & market perspectives

Libella Insights

Perspectives on market themes, investor positioning and the macro forces shaping investment opportunities. Explore the latest edition and our previous publications.

MonthlyNew every month
Latest publication   /   27 October 2026
Global macro · Monthly outlook

Inflation, rates and credit set the path to year-end

The macro backdrop remains supportive, but inflation, high real yields and wider credit spreads limit the upside. Libella’s view for the next three months is an uneven recovery for the S&P 500, inside a 7,400–7,950 range.

Full report (PDF) ↗
DailyNew every weekday · 07:30 London
Morning Markets   /   29 October 2026

Alphabet falls after hours
and Microsoft gains as investors
weigh AI spending against cash flow

Alphabet fell about 10% after hours on heavy AI spending and negative free cash flow, while Microsoft rose on stronger guidance. The Fed held rates with two hawkish dissents; Seoul fell on Thursday as Samsung slid after its results.

Read report   ›Subscribe   ✉
LibellaLibella Daily · Fear / Greed
29 October 2026
Daily sentiment: Extreme fear
24EXTREME FEAR0100
1 day ago21Extreme fear
1 week ago32Fear
1 month ago34Fear
1 year ago54Neutral
Source: Libella Data, 29 October edition.  
WeeklyNew every Monday
Latest publication   /   26 October 2026
Macro and volatility · Weekly update

Extreme fear as implied volatility and put skew rise

Libella’s Fear/Greed Monitor fell to 16. Thirty-day implied volatility rose in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 proxies, and put-over-call skew widened in all three.

Full report (PDF) ↗
WeeklyNew every Saturday
Latest publication   /   24 October 2026
AI sector themes · Weekly update

Capex funding splits the AI trade

Software and security baskets rose while chip-equipment and data-centre build baskets fell, as the cost and financing of the AI build-out came into focus. Only 18 of Libella’s 46 baskets rose over five sessions.

Full report (PDF) ↗
Libella Insights · client portal

The data behind Libella Insights

Monitors and models that support our publications on themes, positioning and index changes, with the full history of each reading.

PositioningMarket Dashboard

Macro board, rates and credit, futures positioning and crowding

DerivativesOptions Monitor

Implied moves into results, volatility term structure, skew and put/call activity

Thematic investingAI Basket Monitor

Daily performance, RSI and trend for 47 AI sector baskets

Reports archive via client portal  ›

For professional investors only. Commentary is for information only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation or an offer. Views may change; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and capital is at risk.

Contact

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For enquiries about advisory mandates, capital, financial markets or international growth, contact us directly.

Professional investors can request access to the Libella Insights client portal (access by invitation) or subscribe to our publications by email.

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Selected firm experience

Projects

Recent mandates across market entry, capital introduction and roadshows, structured solutions and investor engagement, led directly by senior practitioners. Shown on an anonymised basis.

01
Market entry

UAE & Saudi market-entry frameworks

Developed operating and commercial frameworks for financial institutions evaluating expansion into the UAE and Saudi Arabia, including client segmentation, market structure and revenue opportunity analysis.

02
Capital introduction & roadshows

Capital introduction, raising & roadshows

Introduced issuers and private-market sponsors to institutional and family-office investors across the UK and Middle East, and supported capital raising through investor roadshows, from positioning and meeting programmes through to follow-up.

03
Structured solutions

Institutional investment & hedging solutions

Developed bespoke institutional investment and hedging concepts across equities, derivatives, financing and index-driven opportunities.

04
Investor engagement

Middle East institutional investor programmes

Supported investor programmes connecting international financial institutions with sovereign, asset-management and hedge-fund investors across the Middle East and Europe.

To discuss a mandate, contact enquiries@libella-group.com.

Daily 0–100 score from seven market indicators.
Full history and components via the client portal (Access by invitation).
Libella Insights · 24 October 2026

Capex funding splits the AI trade

AI shares diverged in the week to 23 October. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.5% and the PHLX Semiconductor index 3.2%. Only 18 of Libella’s 46 thematic baskets rose over five sessions; the median basket fell 1.3%.

Weekly basket performance

Libella thematic basket5-day return
AI cybersecurity · AICYBER+16.4%
Robotics supply / Unitree China · ROBOTH+15.8%
AI software & data infrastructure · AIDATAINF+14.0%
US semiconductor capex · SEMIUSC−8.2%
US semiconductor equipment leaders · AISEMILD−9.4%
AI data-centre buildout · DCBLD−11.3%

Super Micro’s preliminary sales and SpaceX’s first operating profit lifted AI names on Wednesday. On Thursday Meta fell 7.0% after its capex exceeded operating cash flow and it announced a new non-voting share class, and Lam Research fell 11.8% despite results slightly ahead of analysts’ estimates. Software and security led, the same week the NSA and FBI warned of software flaws found with AI tools.

Positioning and outlook

Combined capex at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta reached 96% of operating cash flow in the second quarter. In our options data, put activity rose in chip equipment and the semiconductor ETFs, while option pricing moved toward calls in software. Thirty-eight of the 46 baskets are up this year but only 11 over one month.

We continue to prefer funded demand, contracted capacity and free-cash-flow conversion over spending financed by new capital.

What to watch

Microsoft and Alphabet report on 28 October and Amazon on 29 October; options imply a ±5.4% move in Microsoft and ±6.1% in Alphabet through the 30 October expiry. The Federal Reserve decides on 28 October and September PCE inflation follows on 29 October, with Brent at $116.72 after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia.

Full report (PDF) ↗

Basket figures: Libella’s 24 October report, closes to 23 October. Equal-weighted USD price returns, dividends excluded; non-USD listings converted at exact-date ECB FX; all 46 baskets analysed. Options data: Libella option snapshots and OCC volume. The interpretation and watch points are Libella commentary. Unaudited; for information only.

Libella Insights · 26 October 2026

Extreme fear as implied volatility and put skew rise

Libella’s Fear/Greed Monitor closed the week to 23 October at 16, extreme fear, down from 47 a month ago. Thirty-day implied volatility rose in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 proxies, and put-over-call skew widened in all three.

Index options, 23 October

Proxy30-day implied vol5-day changePut-over-call skew
S&P 500 · SPY15.2%+1.6 pts6.0
Nasdaq 100 · QQQ24.7%+3.2 pts7.8
Russell 2000 · IWM20.3%+1.2 pts4.9

SPY implied volatility was 1.60 times trailing 20-day realised volatility of 9.5%. SPY put/call volume was 2.85, up from 1.94 at the 16 October reference, and IWM’s rose to 4.18 from 1.81. SMH put/call volume was 3.28, up from 1.08.

Positioning

Over five sessions Libella’s consensus-long group fell 1.35% while the consensus-short group rose 6.35%, a 7.7% gap. Implied volatility rose in 10 of 12 AI names, led by NVDA (+4.3 points); META fell 7.5 points to 37.2% after its 21 October results.

What to watch

Microsoft and Alphabet report on 28 October and Amazon on 29 October; options imply a ±5.4% move in Microsoft and ±6.1% in Alphabet through the 30 October expiry. The Federal Reserve decides on 28 October at 18:00 London (press conference 18:30) and September PCE inflation follows on 29 October at 12:30 London.

Sentiment, put skew and the consensus gap moved the same way this week. We will watch whether implied volatility keeps rising into the results and whether consensus longs keep lagging shorts. Our reading would change if implied volatility eases while sentiment stays low.

Full report (PDF) ↗

Source: Libella Macro and Volatility Update, 26 October edition. Option data: Libella snapshots of Yahoo Finance option chains, about 15 minutes delayed, close slot of 23 October. Implied volatility is 30-day constant maturity at the money; realised volatility is 20-day close-to-close; skew is 25-delta put minus call implied volatility. Consensus groups: 13F long and FINRA short, equal-weighted. Unaudited; for information only.

Libella Insights · 27 October 2026

Inflation, rates and credit set the path to year-end

The macro backdrop remains supportive, but inflation, high real yields, wider credit spreads and geopolitical risk limit the upside and favour narrow market leadership. Libella’s view for the next three months is an uneven recovery inside a 7,400–7,950 range for the S&P 500.

The month in numbers

Measure, data to 26 OctoberReading
Libella Macro Score+2 · Supportive
Libella Fear/Greed19 · Extreme fear
WTI crude$101 · +77% year to date
US high-yield spread338bp · 65bp wider in a month
December rate hike, futures-impliedabout 85%

US CPI rose 3.7% year on year in September, with core inflation at 2.6%. The real ten-year Treasury yield is 2.66%, 95bp higher than a year earlier, and futures imply about a 10% chance of a hike at the 28 October meeting. Futures pricing can move quickly.

Options and positioning

The Cboe SKEW Index rose from 126 in August to 151.8 on 23 October, and SPY 25-delta skew is −5.1 volatility points, with puts priced above calls. Demand for downside protection has risen as markets soften. Options imply a 7,097–8,256 range for the S&P 500 over three months: a range, not a forecast. Libella’s consensus-long basket fell 4.9% over the month while the consensus-short basket rose 2.7%.

Outlook

Lower oil, narrower credit spreads and AI cash conversion open the upside. Higher inflation, a ten-year yield above 5.3% or wider credit spreads put 7,400 at risk. Equity supply is a downside risk: Anthropic made its IPO filing public on 26 October and, according to Reuters, seeks to raise up to $100bn, against SpaceX’s record $75bn in June. Street estimates forecast 8,600–8,800 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2027.

What to watch

The Federal Reserve decides on 28 October, with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting after the close and Amazon on 29 October. US midterm elections follow on 3 November, Nvidia reports about 18 November and the Fed meets again on 9 December.

Full report (PDF) ↗

Sources: Libella Market Monitor, Libella Macro Score v2.1, EODHD, FRED, FINRA; Fed-funds futures odds as at 26 October; Reuters, 26 October (Anthropic IPO); Street year-end 2027 targets from Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Barclays, per press reports. The interpretation and outlook are Libella commentary. Unaudited; for information only.
Libella Insights · 19 October 2026

AI valuations under pressure as institutional selling accelerates

AI and semiconductor shares fell sharply in the week to 16 October. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5%, and only three of Libella’s 42 complete thematic baskets rose over five sessions. The median basket fell 11.8%.

Weekly basket performance

Libella thematic basket5-day return
Europe AI software · AIEURSOFT+6.6%
Business process automation · BPAUTO+2.7%
Workforce / back-office automation · WFAUTO+1.7%
Memory · AIMEM−18.0%
Servers / HPC · AISERV−24.1%
Optical & fiber infrastructure · AIOFCM−27.0%

Losses began in optical and memory, two of this year’s strongest themes, then spread to servers, chip equipment and data-centre infrastructure. Gains were limited to automation and European software.

Positioning and outlook

Goldman Prime commentary points to institutional investors turning from net buyers to net sellers of AI stocks, after buying steadily since early 2025. Their long exposure is still high, so further selling is possible. Demand for upside calls remains firm, but trend-following CTA funds could add to losses if prices keep falling.

Domestic Chinese chipmakers are also gaining ground, adding competitive pressure for US suppliers. We continue to prefer companies with funded demand, contracted capacity, strong cash conversion and sound balance sheets.

What to watch

The near-term question is whether selling stays within optical, memory and chip equipment or spreads across the wider technology sector. Mega-cap earnings will show whether AI spending is turning into contracted revenue and cash flow. Broader participation and solid results would help steady the sector; further deleveraging or funding strain would add to the downside.

Full report (PDF) ↗

Basket figures: Libella’s 19 October report, latest completed closes to 16 October. Equal-weighted USD price returns; non-USD listings converted at exact-date ECB FX; 42 complete baskets analysed, with four Asia-linked baskets excluded pending data validation. Positioning themes paraphrased from Goldman Prime commentary and WSJ/Carrick Lane; no proprietary flow statistics or charts reproduced. The interpretation and watch points are Libella commentary. Unaudited; for information only.