| | WEDNESDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2026 · LONDON 07:30 | |
| | | FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY GLOBAL MARKETS / CROSS-ASSET Hot inflation lifts yields and hits megacap tech, while CoreWeave revives AI buying overnightTuesday's hotter inflation report hit bonds and the largest technology stocks while the wider market held steady. Core consumer prices rose +0.3% in October against a +0.2% consensus, and the S&P 500 fell −0.4% to 7,521 while the Nasdaq 100 lost −0.6%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 was flat (−0.03%), with 250 of 502 members rising and 247 falling. Technology was the weakest sector ETF (XLK −1.2%), with Nvidia −5.5% and Microsoft −2.2%, while financials gained +0.5%. Asia's chip markets rebounded on Wednesday as Nasdaq futures rose. Taiwan's Taiex closed +3.6% at 44,257 and Seoul's Kospi +2.6% at 5,375, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed +1.3% at 61,249. The Shanghai Composite closed +0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was −0.8% in afternoon trade. Overnight, CoreWeave's raised revenue forecast drew buyers back to AI shares. S&P 500 E-mini (Dec) futures were +0.6% and Nasdaq 100 E-mini (Dec) futures +1.4% in Asian trading hours. January Brent was +0.8% at $92.26/bbl early on Wednesday, as reports of attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz offset hopes of a US-Iran truce, according to Reuters. With the Treasury market shut for Veterans Day, today's test is whether the overnight rebound in AI shares holds now that a December Fed rate rise is fully priced. US stocks trade normally; German October inflation is the main scheduled release. Nvidia reports after the close on 17 November, and its options imply ~±10.3% through the 18 November expiry, which includes the results; QQQ and SPY options imply ~±2.5% and ~±1.5% through 16 November, before Nvidia reports. Libella Insights • 5-minute read | THE DAY IN NUMBERS MARKETS −0.4% S&P 500, 10 Nov close | −0.6% Nasdaq 100, 10 Nov close | 4.98% UST10 Yield, 10 Nov close | −1.2% Brent (Jan), 10 Nov close $91.49 |
LIBELLA AI BASKETS (5 DAY) −5.2% Median of 47 baskets, 5D | 5 / 47 AI baskets positive, 5D | +3.6% Best verified basket:
AI Space & Satellite | −14.9% Worst: Edge Storage /
Memory Controllers |
| RATES: A December Fed rate rise is now fully priced after October consumer prices beat forecasts. Fed funds futures put a 65% chance on a further rise in January, and Goldman Sachs now expects another in March, according to Reuters. Governor Waller had said a core reading of this size could lead him to consider a half-point move. AI / HYPERSCALERS: CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue forecast above consensus and lifted the bottom of its capital-spending range. Quarterly revenue rose +168% y/y, and the company set out a path to profitability in the first half of 2028, after a 40% fall in its shares over the past month. AI / CHIPS: Nvidia's independent directors hired outside counsel to investigate reports about its chief executive. Two days of losses removed ~$430bn from Nvidia's market value. Its quarterly results are due on 17 November. AI / FINANCING: Anthropic's amended listing documents offer 825m shares at $70–78 each, putting the IPO on track before Thanksgiving. The FT reports that bankers are weighing a higher price after strong demand, which could lift the valuation to $1.5tn or more. OIL / IRAN: Brent recovered from a two-month low as attacks on shipping near Hormuz offset hopes of a US-Iran truce. On Tuesday WTI briefly traded below $84/bbl before Iran's top security official said there were no talks with the US. EUROPE: ECB chief economist Philip Lane said the rate path depends on how far inflation spreads. German October inflation is due this morning, and President Lagarde speaks on a panel in Paris. UK: NIESR forecasts UK inflation above the Bank of England's 2% target for the next four years. The Chancellor gives evidence on the Budget to the Treasury Committee today. |
| | 1 | THE BIG STORY | Back to top ↑ | | Hot inflation hits megacap tech and Treasuries; the equal-weighted S&P 500 holds flat |
October's consumer prices moved the rate outlook more than any company news. Headline prices rose +0.4% on the month, a tenth of a point above consensus; the Bureau of Labor Statistics published no annual rate because of last year's shutdown gap. Fed funds futures now fully price a December rise to 4.00–4.25%, according to CME FedWatch. The selling was narrow. Six of the 11 sector ETFs rose, led by financials and energy, and the equal-weighted index ended close to unchanged while the S&P 500 fell. Nvidia closed at $168.89 as its board's inquiry continued, and Microsoft fell after Anthropic released spreadsheet and whiteboard tools in beta. Exhibit 1b shows the equal-weighted S&P 500 relative to the Nasdaq 100, 17.8% above its five-year low of 7 October. Positioning stays cautious. Libella's Fear / Greed score was 19.2 on Tuesday, in extreme fear, and on Libella's estimate trend-following funds had moved from short to flat on the S&P 500 by 10 November.
| Exhibit 1: S&P 500 sector ETFs, the S&P 500 (SPY), the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and the SOX, one-session change on 10 Nov (%) | | Financials | | +0.5% | | Energy | | +0.4% | | Communication services | | +0.4% | | Health care | | +0.3% | | Consumer staples | | +0.1% | | Consumer discretionary | | +0.0% | | S&P 500 equal weight (RSP) | | −0.0% | | Industrials | | −0.1% | | Real estate | | −0.1% | | Utilities | | −0.1% | | Materials | | −0.2% | | Semiconductors (SOX) | | −0.3% | | S&P 500 (SPY) | | −0.4% | | Information technology | | −1.1% |
| | Source: Libella data (SPDR sector ETFs, SPY, RSP and SOX; YFDP), cross-checked against Briefing.com's 10 Nov closing summary (financials +0.5% match; Briefing.com's sector index shows information technology −1.4%, against −1.2% for the XLK ETF) · Libella Insights. |
| Exhibit 1b: The equal-weighted S&P 500 keeps gaining on the Nasdaq 100 |  | | Read: RSP ÷ QQQ price ratio; rising = the average S&P 500 stock beating the Nasdaq 100. Data to 10 Nov 2026 (0.327; five-year low 0.278 on 7 Oct; +8.2% over one year). Source: EODHD closes; Libella calculation. |
| LIBELLA VIEW | | We still favour cloud platforms with capacity already in service and edge-inference chipmakers over suppliers that depend on new data-centre construction, cooling, memory and storage. CoreWeave's higher revenue guidance points to demand for capacity that is already running, while Tuesday's CPI made a December rate rise the base case and raised the cost of funding the build-out; the main risk is a broad cut in AI budgets that reaches cloud contracts. |
| | | WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW Tuesday's results fit this view: CoreWeave raised its revenue forecast and the build-out suppliers kept falling. We would become more positive on build-out suppliers if Nvidia's 17 November guidance holds up, if CoreWeave and Anthropic raise their funding without wider high-yield spreads (3.34%, the latest reading), and if the 2-year yield stops rising; a second hot core inflation reading in December would argue for a more defensive stance. |
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| | 2 | INSIDE THE LIBELLA BASKETS | Back to top ↑ | | Five of 47 baskets rise over five sessions; storage and memory still fall most |
Five of the 47 Libella AI baskets gained over the five sessions to 10 November and the median return was −5.2%; on Tuesday alone 25 rose, with a median of +0.04%. AI Space & Satellite Infrastructure (+3.6% in US dollars) led the verified baskets, as Rocket Lab (+15.2%) outweighed AST SpaceMobile (−9.3%). AI Edge / Inference rose +3.1%, with Cirrus Logic +7.0% and Lattice Semiconductor +5.0%. Edge Storage / Memory Controllers fell −14.9%, with Seagate −17.3% and Western Digital −16.7%, and Memory lost −14.2% despite SK hynix's +7.3% in Seoul on Tuesday. Exhibit 2: Libella AI baskets, five-session return (%) | AI Space & Satellite Infrastructure | | +3.59% | | AI Edge / Inference | | +3.12% | | Cloud / Telecom | | +1.91% | | Median of 47 baskets | | −5.16% | | Memory | | −14.23% | | AI Storage | | −14.24% | | Edge Storage / Memory Controllers | | −14.86% |
Five sessions to 10 Nov; equal-weighted USD price returns, rebalanced daily. A stock's figure is its own five-session return (local currency for Korean listings). Closes cross-checked (validation pass, 11 Nov 06:54 UTC); nine European closes for 10 Nov could not be confirmed by a second source, so the European baskets are not shown. China Compute & Semiconductor (+15.1%) and Robotics Supply / Unitree China (+7.5%) also rose but are released under a verification rule and are not shown as rows or tiles. The positive count (5) and the median include both of those baskets. Source: Libella data. WHAT WE LIKE Over six to twelve months we prefer cloud platforms and edge-inference chipmakers to suppliers that depend on new data-centre construction, cooling, memory and storage; the main risk to that preference is a rebound in memory prices that lifts storage and memory earnings faster than expected. |
| | 3 | THE MACRO LENS | Back to top ↑ | | Hot inflation lifts short-dated yields to November highs and Treasury volatility with them |
The 2-year Treasury yield settled +20bp at 4.75% on Tuesday and the 10-year +12bp at 4.98%, flattening the 10-year/2-year spread to 23bp, after the CPI and a weak $42bn 10-year auction. The MOVE index of Treasury volatility rose +6.5 points to 92.4, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate eased −2bp to 2.20%. Exhibit 3: US 2-year Treasury yield, three months | 91st | 2-year yield percentile
v past year · 4.75% settle, 10 Nov |
 | US 2-year Treasury yield, %, daily to 10 Nov (10 Nov: settlement 4.75%; Libella series 4.73%). Read: higher = markets expect a tighter Fed. Source: Libella data (FRED); Briefing.com. |
| Exhibit 4: MOVE index of Treasury volatility, three months | 84th | MOVE percentile
v past year · 92.4 close, 10 Nov |
 | ICE BofA MOVE index (implied volatility of Treasury options), daily to 10 Nov. Read: higher = larger expected swings in yields. Source: Libella data (YFDP). |
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THE TENSION Breakeven inflation fell as short-dated yields jumped, so the bond market is treating the CPI as a reason for the Fed to tighten, with little change in its longer-run inflation outlook. That tightens financing for capital-intensive AI projects in the same week that CoreWeave raised its capital-spending range and Anthropic seeks up to ~$64bn in its listing. |
| | 4 | OVERNIGHT EARNINGS | Back to top ↑ | | CoreWeave rises after raising guidance; Rigetti and Alcon fall after hours |
| COMPANY | RESULT VS CONSENSUS | AFTER HOURS | | CoreWeave | Q3 revenue $3.66bn vs $3.54bn consensus; loss of $1.27 a share, in line; FY26 revenue guidance $13.0–13.3bn vs $12.82bn; raised the low end of its capex guidance to $37bn ($37–39bn). | about +8% AH (Reuters) | | Alcon | Q3 core EPS $0.91 vs $0.88 consensus; revenue $2.72bn vs $2.73bn. | −5.5% AH | | Rigetti Computing | Q3 loss of $0.06 a share vs a $0.05 consensus loss; revenue $1.4m vs $3.5m. | −7.9% AH | | BrightView | Fiscal Q4 EPS $0.18, $0.08 below consensus; revenue below consensus; FY27 revenue guidance below consensus. | −14.4% AH |
| EXHIBIT 5: OPTIONS POSITIONING INTO THE RESULTS · 10 NOV CLOSE (EODHD) |
| NAME | MOVE TO
EXPIRY (%) | TYPICAL
(%) | TRADING
DAYS | DAILY
EQUIV. (%) | OPTION
EXPIRY | SNAP | IV
30D | P/C
VOL | P/C
OI | RESULT | | CRWV | ±18.1 | ±14.8 | 3 | ±10.5 | 13 Nov | Close | 121% | 0.96 | 1.05 | about +8% AH | | TTWO (9 Nov quote) | ±8.1 | ±6.5 | 4 | ±4.0 | 13 Nov | Close | 64% | 0.50 | 0.48 | +8.3%
1.03× exp. | | ONTO (monthly, 9 Nov quote) | ±15.3 | ±11.4 | 9 | ±5.1 | 20 Nov | Close | 90% | 0.39 | 1.00 | +1.8%
0.12× exp. | | RKLB (9 Nov quote) | ±12.8 | ±10.6 | 4 | ±6.4 | 13 Nov | Close | 87% | 0.60 | 0.76 | +6.5%
0.51× exp. | | TDG (monthly, 9 Nov quote) | ±8.0 | ±4.9 | 9 | ±2.7 | 20 Nov | Close | 42% | 0.29 | 1.72 | +0.5%
0.07× exp. | | AMAT | ±8.7 | ±6.5 | 3 | ±5.0 | 13 Nov | Close | 68% | 0.86 | 1.34 | Thu, after close | | CSCO | ±8.7 | ±6.2 | 3 | ±5.0 | 13 Nov | Close | 51% | 0.24 | 0.80 | Thu, after close | | NVDA | ±10.3 | ±4.0 | 6 | ±4.2 | 18 Nov | Close | 59% | 0.67 | 0.90 | 17 Nov, after close | | ETF INDEX OPTIONS | | SMH | ±4.9 | — | 4 | ±2.5 | 16 Nov | Close | 48% | 2.85 | 1.06 | — | | QQQ | ±2.5 | — | 4 | ±1.3 | 16 Nov | Close | 25% | 0.94 | 1.11 | — | | SPY | ±1.5 | — | 4 | ±0.8 | 16 Nov | Close | 16% | 0.90 | 2.53 | — |
Source: Libella options data (EODHD end-of-day closing bid/ask); snapshot 10 Nov 16:00 ET close. Method: see the options method note at the end. Tuesday's reactions v options-implied moves: Take-Two closed +8.3%, 1.03 times the move its options implied, while Rocket Lab's +6.5% was 0.51 times and Onto Innovation's +1.8% only 0.12 times. TransDigm, which reported before the open, ended +0.5%. This week's AI reporters: before its release CoreWeave's options implied ±18.1% to the 13 November expiry, more than its typical results-day move of ±14.8%; the shares rose about +8% in extended trading, according to Reuters. Applied Materials and Cisco report on Thursday, each with ~±8.7% implied to 13 November. Options activity: over Tuesday's full session ~2.85 SMH puts traded for every call, while SPY and QQQ were close to balanced at 0.90 and 0.95 puts per call. Of the ten names with the most option premium traded by 15:30 New York, six leaned to calls, led by AMD and Microsoft; Micron and SanDisk leaned to puts, and Nvidia, the largest at ~$4.2bn, was balanced. Under the model's dealer-inventory assumptions, Libella estimates negative gamma exposure in SPY and QQQ, so hedging could amplify moves in either direction. Options volume and open interest: the Nvidia 18 December $185 call traded 117,750 contracts by 15:30 New York, ~2.5 times the previous session's open interest of 46,613 contracts, worth ~$70.1m at traded prices. Today's open-interest figures will offer a read on whether most of that volume opened new positions or closed existing ones. | | 5 | AROUND THE WORLD | Back to top ↑ | | Taiwan and Seoul lead Asia's chip rebound; Europe set for a firmer open |
The Kospi was still −15.8% over one month after two days of gains, with the memory makers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix about half of the index. The dollar firmed with the Fed repricing: USD/JPY was 158.80 early on Wednesday, after rising +0.5% on Tuesday, and the Australian dollar fell to a seven-month low as traders bet its central bank has finished raising rates. | INDEX | LEVEL | CHANGE | STATUS | | NIKKEI 225 | 61,249 | +1.3% | close | | KOSPI | 5,375 | +2.6% | close | | TAIEX | 44,257 | +3.6% | close | | HANG SENG | 24,356 | −0.8% | 15:10 HKT |
UK. The FTSE 100 closed −0.3% at 10,752 on Tuesday. easyJet shareholders vote on Apollo's takeover offer today. Europe. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed +0.7% at 6,333 on Tuesday, and pan-European futures were +0.6% early on Wednesday. ECB policymakers have signalled support for a December rate rise. | | 6 | ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE CALENDAR | Back to top ↑ | | On the radar today (London time) |
| TIME | EVENT | WHY IT MATTERS | | All day | US Veterans Day Treasury market closed; the New York Stock Exchange trades a normal session. | Treasury market closed; the New York Stock Exchange trades a normal session. | | Morning | Germany CPI (Oct) Whether euro-area inflation is broadening, after Lane's remarks. Release time unspecified. | Whether euro-area inflation is broadening, after Lane's remarks. Release time unspecified. | | Through the day | UK Chancellor at the Treasury Committee; easyJet vote on Apollo bid Budget questions for gilts and sterling; the outcome of the takeover vote. | Budget questions for gilts and sterling; the outcome of the takeover vote. | | Through the day | OPEC monthly oil market report Demand and supply estimates after Brent's two-month low. | Demand and supply estimates after Brent's two-month low. | | Through the day | ECB President Lagarde, Paris panel Any comment on a December rate rise. | Any comment on a December rate rise. | | 12:00 | US MBA mortgage applications (week to 7 Nov) Prior −1.2%; first housing read after the jump in yields. | Prior −1.2%; first housing read after the jump in yields. | | US results | Corteva, Tetra Tech Seed pricing and farm demand; US infrastructure and water spending. Release times unspecified. | Seed pricing and farm demand; US infrastructure and water spending. Release times unspecified. |
| AS OF gives the date of each value. Equities: previous close (Asia: close, or last if still trading). Futures are Generic 1st (front-month) contracts: last price, or settlement when shut. FX: last. Cash yields: settlement; credit spreads and real yields: latest published day. 52W PCT ranks the latest value against the past year. | NAME | LAST | 1D | 1W | 1M | YTD | 52W PCT | AS OF | | S&P 500 | 7,521 | −0.38% | −0.63% | −3.72% | +9.87% | 68th | 10 Nov | | Nasdaq 100 | 27,741 | −0.60% | −1.56% | −10.18% | +9.87% | 49th | 10 Nov | | PHLX Semiconductor | 9,998 | −0.35% | −5.68% | −20.47% | +41.16% | 45th | 10 Nov | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,328 | +0.59% | +2.98% | +2.50% | +9.17% | 87th | 10 Nov | | FTSE 100 | 10,752 | −0.29% | +1.06% | +1.89% | +8.26% | 84th | 10 Nov | | Nikkei 225 | 61,249 | +1.31% | −1.51% | −11.27% | +21.67% | 51st | 11 Nov | | Hang Seng | 24,356 | −0.82% | +1.82% | +0.35% | −4.97% | 17th | 11 Nov |
| NAME | LAST | 1D | 1W | 1M | YTD | 52W PCT | | US 2Y note future (Gen 1st) | 101.96 | −0.07% | −0.31% | +0.15% | −2.33% | 8th | | US 10Y note future (Gen 1st) | 106.03 | −0.21% | −0.80% | +1.40% | −5.70% | 10th |
Gen 1st = front-month contract. Fed funds: implied rate (100 − price) on the contract for the first full month after the next Fed meeting; rolls the day after each meeting. | NAME | LAST | 1D (bp) | 1W (bp) | 1M (bp) | YTD (bp) | 52W PCT | AS OF | | US 2Y Treasury | 4.75% | +20bp | +14bp | −5bp | +128bp | 91st | 10 Nov | | US 10Y Treasury | 4.98% | +12bp | +3bp | −26bp | +80bp | 89th | 10 Nov | | 2s10s curve | 24bp | −6bp | −10bp | −20bp | −47bp | 0th | 10 Nov | | US 10Y real yield (TIPS) | 2.66% | +3bp | +4bp | −25bp | +73bp | 91st | 9 Nov | | US IG credit spread (OAS) | 0.91% | −2bp | −3bp | +8bp | +12bp | 97th | 9 Nov | | US HY credit spread (OAS) | 3.34% | −8bp | −9bp | +23bp | +53bp | 97th | 9 Nov |
| NAME | LAST | 1D | 1W | 1M | YTD | 52W PCT | AS OF | | US dollar index (DXY) | 102.34 | +0.11% | +0.82% | −0.23% | +4.13% | 99th | 11 Nov | | EUR/USD | 1.12 | −0.56% | −0.43% | −0.40% | −5.00% | 2nd | 11 Nov | | GBP/USD | 1.33 | −0.75% | −0.69% | +0.75% | −0.94% | 28th | 11 Nov | | USD/JPY | 158.79 | +0.51% | +0.21% | +0.37% | +1.52% | 61st | 11 Nov |
| NAME | LAST | 1D | 1W | 1M | YTD | 52W PCT | AS OF | | Brent crude (Jan) (Generic 1st) $/bbl | 92.26 | +0.84% | −2.49% | −11.90% | +51.62% | 54th | 11 Nov | | WTI crude (Generic 1st) $/bbl | 86.39 | +0.35% | −2.02% | −7.02% | +51.69% | 52nd | 11 Nov | | Gold (Generic 1st) $/oz | 4,068 | +0.93% | −0.13% | −2.93% | −6.30% | 10th | 11 Nov | | Copper (Generic 1st) $/lb | 6.33 | +1.73% | −1.19% | −5.55% | +12.38% | 63rd | 11 Nov | | Bitcoin $ | 73,562 | −2.21% | −8.51% | −10.03% | −15.94% | 41st | 11 Nov |
| NAME | LAST | 1D (pts) | 1W (pts) | 1M (pts) | YTD (pts) | 52W PCT | AS OF | | VIX index (spot) | 19.5 | −0.46 | −1.37 | +4.62 | +4.51 | 77th | 10 Nov | | VXN (Nasdaq 100 vol) | 28.6 | −0.40 | −1.96 | +8.02 | +9.01 | 87th | 10 Nov | | S&P 500 realised vol (20-day) | 22.1 | +0.01 | +10.75 | +12.19 | +13.08 | 100th | 10 Nov | | MOVE (Treasury vol) | 92.4 | +6.45 | −7.54 | −6.04 | +28.47 | 84th | 10 Nov |
| CROWDING (EQUAL-WEIGHT LEGS) |
| NAME | 1D (%) | 5D (%) | 1M (%) | RSI (14) | RSI>70 (%) | AS OF | | Libella US consensus long | −0.29 | −2.32 | −7.47 | 43 | 2% | 10 Nov | | Libella US consensus short | −0.07 | +2.75 | +8.67 | 62 | 10% | 10 Nov | | Gap: long minus short | −0.22 | −5.07 | −16.14 | — | — | 10 Nov |
| SENTIMENT & FUTURES POSITIONING |
| NAME | LATEST | PREVIOUS | 1W AGO | 1M AGO | READING | AS OF | | Libella Fear / Greed (0–100) | 19 | 21 | 15 | 37 | Extreme fear | 10 Nov | | Nasdaq-100 E-mini: OI change | −2,223 | −13,770 | — | — | OI 290,442 | 10 Nov | | S&P 500 E-mini: OI change | +8,832 | −27,953 | — | — | OI 2,020,113 | 10 Nov | | S&P 500 skew (SPY, 1M) | −5.74 | −5.82 | −6.05 | — | Puts dearer | 10 Nov | | Nasdaq-100 skew (QQQ, 1M) | −7.41 | −7.40 | −7.04 | — | Puts dearer | 10 Nov | | AI stocks skew (median, 1M) | −5.71 | −6.12 | −4.05 | — | Puts dearer | 10 Nov | | S&P 500 E-mini: lev. funds net | −372,318 | — | −400,604 | −415,087 | −18.7% · 36th | 3 Nov | | Nasdaq-100 E-mini: lev. funds net | +10,073 | — | +2,301 | −19,212 | +3.4% · 97th | 3 Nov |
| CREDIT DIVERGENCE: WEAKEST V BROAD |
| NAME | Latest | 4W change | Percentile | AS OF | | Weakest credit: CCC−B spread (ETF proxy) | 9.90% | +104bp | 100th (1Y) | 10 Nov | | Broad credit: OFR credit stress | −0.86 | +0.13 | 98th (1Y) | 6 Nov |
| BREADTH: LIBELLA STIX (0–100) |
| NAME | LATEST | PREVIOUS | 1W AGO | 1M AGO | READING | AS OF | | Libella STIX: NYSE | 50.2 | 51.8 | 49.6 | 47.0 | Neutral · rising | 10 Nov | | Libella STIX: Nasdaq | 48.4 | 50.2 | 47.4 | 45.1 | Neutral · rising | 10 Nov | | Libella STIX: NYSE + Nasdaq | 49.0 | 50.8 | 48.2 | 45.8 | Neutral · rising | 10 Nov |
| STIX TREND RULE V S&P 500 (BACK-TEST, LAST 12 MONTHS) |
| NAME | POSITION | SINCE | RULE (%) | S&P 500 (%) | RULE MAX DD (%) | AS OF | | Long S&P 500 while STIX (NYSE + Nasdaq) is rising | Long | 2026-11-09 | −2.7 | +11.8 | −9.1 | 10 Nov |
Libella US consensus long: Libella calculation from SEC Form 13F filings. Libella US consensus short: Libella calculation from FINRA short-interest data. Raw, unhedged; equal weight, rebalanced daily; prices YFDP; RSI(14) descriptive, not a signal; RSI>70 = share of stocks with RSI above 70. OI change and positions in contracts. Open interest: CME Group daily volume and open interest. Skew (vol pts): 1-month 25-delta risk reversal (call IV minus put IV) from Libella option-chain snapshots (YFDP); negative = puts dearer. Lev. funds net: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, leveraged funds, weekly (Tuesday positions); reading = net as % of open interest · 3-year percentile. AS OF gives each series' latest session. CCC−B spread (ETF proxy): Libella calculation from BondBloxx CCC-rated (XCCC) and B-rated (XB) ETF closes via EODHD, scaled to the ICE BofA CCC & Lower and Single-B US High Yield spreads by back-test (Nov 2023–Oct 2026; typical error ±35bp; reliable for levels and 4-week changes, not daily moves). Not an ICE index. OFR credit stress: credit category of the OFR Financial Stress Index (US Treasury, Office of Financial Research; 0 = average stress). 4W = 20 sessions. Both percentiles rank the latest reading against the past year (owner, 29 Oct 2026); OFR since 2000: 21st. Libella STIX: advancing issues as a share of advancing plus declining issues on NYSE and on Nasdaq (common, preferred and ETFs), 9% exponential average, Heikin-Ashi trend (rising / falling); above 60 overbought, below 40 oversold; descriptive. Libella calculation from EODHD closes; today's listings, so not official exchange counts. Trend rule: long the S&P 500 from the close after the combined STIX turns up, flat after it turns down; back-test, price only, no costs; not a recommendation. Libella macro board: Sources | | The macro board, the full 47-basket monitor and the weekly AI Sector Themes report are available in the client portal (access by invitation). |
| Sources. Briefing.com · Reuters · FT · ABC7 News · Barchart · Libella data (YFDP, EODHD, FRED, Cboe, OCC, CFTC, SEC, FINRA) · CME FedWatch. US close, Nasdaq Composite, sectors (index basis), company moves, CPI and consensus, Treasury settlements, 10-year auction, WTI settle, Iran remarks, CoreWeave, Alcon, Rigetti and BrightView results and guidance (consensus: FactSet), after-hours moves, Anthropic share offer, Microsoft and Nvidia items and today's MBA release: Briefing.com (Closing Stock Market Summary, After Hours Summary and earnings alerts, 10 Nov 2026). US 10-year yield: Briefing.com (Closing Stock Market Summary, 10 Nov 2026); series FRED DGS10. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, SOX, sector ETFs, equal weight (RSP), FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, S&P 500 member breadth, VIX and MOVE closes, 10-year breakeven (FRED), Fear / Greed score, ETF flows, trend-follower estimate, baskets and members: Libella data (YFDP/EODHD/FRED, 10 Nov). Futures: YFDP Generic 1st, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini Dec 26 contracts, 07:10 London 11 Nov. Brent: ICE Brent futures, Jan 27 contract, via YFDP 07:10 London 11 Nov; settle 10 Nov $91.49 (YFDP, checked). Nikkei 225, Kospi, Taiex and Shanghai Composite closes, Hang Seng afternoon level (YFDP, 07:10 London), 11 Nov. December and January rate pricing: CME FedWatch via Briefing.com. Goldman Sachs Fed forecast, Waller remarks, CoreWeave revenue growth and profitability path, Nvidia market value, Hormuz shipping and oil, Australian dollar, pan-European futures, ECB (Lane), NIESR forecast and today's diary: Reuters (Morning Bid Europe, 11 Nov; Trading Day, 10 Nov). Anthropic pricing talk, easyJet vote, Chancellor's evidence and OPEC report: FT (FirstFT, 11 Nov). Nvidia board inquiry link: ABC7 News. Exhibit 1b: EODHD closes; Libella calculation (theme from Citadel Securities GMI). Options: Libella options data (EODHD closing file, 10 Nov; YFDP chains to 15:30 New York; OCC). Positioning appendix: Libella calculation (SEC 13F, FINRA, CME, CFTC).
Data notes. Libella macro board: YFDP (exchanges and data providers distributed through Yahoo Finance), FRED (ICE BofA), Cboe, CFTC. Futures are Generic 1st (front-month) contracts; last prices, FX, gold, bitcoin and Asia levels are from the 07:10 London feed run, otherwise settlement. Brent is the January 2027 ICE contract (10 Nov close $91.49, YFDP, checked; last $92.26 at 07:10 London, YFDP); WTI Generic 1st is the December contract (10 Nov settle $86.11/bbl, Briefing.com). US 2-year, 10-year and 2s10s cash yields are 10 Nov settlements from Briefing.com; the VIX is the Cboe daily close via YFDP; credit spreads and real yields are the latest FRED daily values (9 Nov). The Nikkei 225, Kospi, Taiex and Shanghai Composite are closing levels; the Hang Seng is an afternoon level (07:10 London). Realised volatility = annualised standard deviation of 20 daily S&P 500 log returns. 52W PCT = percentile rank of the latest value against the past year. Rates moves in basis points; — = not available. The Fed funds future and 10-year yield future rows are not shown while their history is corrected.
Libella Options Model. Moves are based on ATM call and put bid/ask mid-prices divided by spot. Trading days run from the quote time to the expiry close on NYSE sessions: the quote day counts as the fraction of its session remaining, exchange holidays are excluded and early-close days count as full sessions. Daily equivalents use square-root-of-time scaling and assume risk is evenly distributed across the remaining trading days. For reporting names the expiry is the first on or after the reaction session, so the window includes the earnings reaction but may also reflect other market risks; the daily equivalent still spreads it evenly and understates the reaction day. Typical = average absolute close-to-close move on the reaction session over the last eight reports with known timing (at least four). Where a reaction session has closed, the result is the close-to-close move and its ratio to the expected move at the previous close. These are straddle-based measures, not one-standard-deviation estimates or probability bounds. Put/call ratios use total listed volume and open interest and do not show whether options were bought or sold. Implied moves, IVs and put/call ratios: EODHD closing file (end-of-day closing bid/ask), 10 Nov 16:00 New York, to the first expiry on or after the reaction session (earnings window). Take-Two, Onto Innovation, Rocket Lab and TransDigm are carried from the 10 Nov edition (9 Nov closing file) with the 10 Nov close-to-close result and its multiple of the implied move. After-hours moves: Briefing.com After Hours Summary, 10 Nov 18:00 ET. Trading days = US equity sessions from the 10 Nov close to expiry (13 Nov 3, 16 Nov 4, 18 Nov 6; 9 Nov quotes: 13 Nov 4, 20 Nov 9; US equity markets are open on Veterans Day). Typical = average absolute results-day move in past quarters, from the 10 Nov EODHD closing file. Premium leaders and leans: YFDP option chains (delayed) to 15:30 New York, Libella calculation; "leaned to calls/puts" = at least 60% of that premium in calls/puts, otherwise balanced. Consensus: FactSet via Briefing.com. IV = implied volatility; P/C = put/call ratio; OI = open interest. Dealer gamma: Libella model estimate from the EODHD closing chain (dealers long calls / short puts), not observed positioning. Options volume and open interest: YFDP chains to 15:30 New York against the previous day's OCC open interest; no external block report checked.
Important information. For professional investors only; not for retail clients. In the UK this communication is directed only at investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 and must not be relied on by any other person. It is issued by Libella Group Limited (registered in England and Wales, no. 16398403, 128 City Road, London EC1V 2NX) for information only. It is not investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, and it does not take account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Views are those of Libella Insights at the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy or completeness; data are unaudited and may contain errors or omissions. Libella basket returns are hypothetical calculations, not the performance of an investable product or account, and exclude dividends, fees and costs. Options and leveraged instruments carry a high degree of risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results; the value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise, currency movements can affect returns, and investors may not get back the amount invested. Libella Group Limited, its directors and staff may hold positions in securities mentioned. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss arising from use of this material. Third-party names and data remain the property of their owners. Reproduction or redistribution requires Libella’s prior written consent. © 2026 Libella Group Limited. |
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